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January 2026

Election-Year Stimuli and Economic Performance: Evidence from a Macroeconometric Model of the Philippines

By Ruiz, Mark Gerald C., Miral, Ramona Maria L., and Rivera, John Paolo R.

The transmission of election shocks in the Philippine economy was evaluated using an augmented macroeconometric model that incorporates political business cycle (PBC) dynamics into the country’s macroeconomic framework. Building upon the model developed by Debuque-Gonzales and Corpus (2023, 2024), quarterly data from 2002 to 2023 was utilized to simulate the effects of election-induced fiscal and private sector behavior on key macroeconomic variables, namely private consumption, employment, investment, and government consumption.